THE ARAL SEA CRISIS IN UZBEKISTAN AND THE HISTORICAL TRANSFORMATION OF WATER POLICY (1960–2025)

Abstract

This article analyses the historical transformation of the Aral 
Sea crisis and of water policy in Uzbekistan between 1960 and 2025. It argues 
that the Aral Sea crisis should be examined not merely as an environmental 
catastrophe but as a long-term governance challenge at the intersection 
of irrigation economics, cotton-centred planning, transboundary water 
cooperation, human security, and climate adaptation. The study reconstructs 
three successive policy models: the Soviet hydro-technical production model 
(1960–1991); the post-independence crisis-mitigation and regional-institution 
model (1991–2016); and the post-2017 water-security, human-security, and 
modernization model. Quantitative synthesis shows that the sea’s surface area 
contracted by roughly nine-tenths, its volume by more than nine-tenths, and its 
salinity rose more than tenfold. The article concludes that the realistic objective 
is no longer the restoration of the historical sea but the conversion of the Aral 
region into a habitable, productive, and ecologically secure territory through 
water-saving technology, digital monitoring, ecosystem restoration, protection 
of downstream interests, and strengthened regional water diplomacy.