ENERGY EFFICIENCY AND FUEL–EMISSION CALCULATIONS FOR UZBEKISTAN’S THERMAL POWER STATIONS: A CASE STUDY ANALYSIS

Abstract

This study presents detailed energy efficiency and emission calculations for five major thermal power stations in Uzbekistan, quantifying their current performance, fuel consumption patterns, CO₂ emission levels, and improvement potential. Uzbekistan’s power sector relies heavily on natural gas-fired thermal generation, with approximately 90% of national electricity produced by thermal power stations (IES), many of which were commissioned during the Soviet era and operate below design efficiency. Using plant-level operational data, thermodynamic heat balance analysis, and IPCC emission factor methodology, this study calculates the specific fuel consumption (SFC), thermal efficiency, and CO₂ emission intensity for each station. Results reveal that the analyzed stations operate at thermal efficiencies of 28–42%, with SFC values ranging from 290 to 430 g.c.e./kWh, and emission intensities of 520–780 kg CO₂/MWh. Modernization scenarios demonstrate that upgrading aging equipment and implementing combined cycle technology could improve fleet-average efficiency from 33.4% to 48.5%, yielding annual fuel savings of 3.2 billion m³ of natural gas and CO₂ emission reductions of 12.8 million tonnes. These calculations provide a quantitative basis for investment prioritization and energy policy planning in the Uzbekistan power sector